Nine Straight Threes' Divisional Round Vibes-based Preview
Let's let our gut do the thinking for once
The NFL’s best weekend of the year is here – the divisional round. Four games, eight teams that represent the league’s very best, or close to it, and presumably multiple close, compelling contests.
Just don’t look at the point spreads, please. Besides Ravens-Bills, the other three games feature at least a touchdown spread, and therefore the expectation that the proceedings might get out of hand.
We’re not going to dive in too deeply on these games, but instead do a vibes-based preview. Simple, right? Gut-feeling stuff. Let’s get to it.
4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Houston at Kansas City
Line: KC -8.5
Texans vibes:
Surprisingly good. Maybe the best of any team left in the playoffs, precisely because few people thought they’d be one of the teams left in the playoffs. Houston looked like they didn’t belong for about a quarter against the Chargers, and then came alive in pretty spectacular fashion to roll the Chargers 32-12. The defense forced Justin Herbert into four interceptions, one more than he threw all season, and while C.J. Stroud’s numbers don’t look eye-popping, he looked much more like the Stroud of 2023. Plus, the defense absolutely got after Herbert, sacking him four times, hitting him 12, and generally making his life miserable. Joe Mixon is banged-up, and Houston still doesn’t have much in the way of weaponry beyond Nico Collins, but they are frisky and they are most definitely playing with house money.
Chiefs vibes:
Same as ever, BUT: We may actually be at the point where the Chiefs are an underdog, albeit not in this game. Buffalo and Baltimore, to say nothing of Detroit, look so good that it feels like there are too many obstacles in Kansas City’s way as they chase a three-peat and NFL history. Then again, even the people who say that this isn’t a typical Chiefs team do so in hushed tones, almost as if there’s an expectation that they’re going to turn it on and make the general public look foolish over the next few weeks. One thing does seem clear about this year’s group: The casual fan hates them. The tide has turned. Kansas City was once the mini-dynasty you couldn’t hate, on account of Patrick Mahomes being too much fun to watch. No more. Now Mahomes is a whiner, Travis Kelce is overexposed, their actual style of play is boring, and they’ve generally won too much. The worm has turned. Which might be all the motivation number 15 needs.
Chiefs 26 Texans 17
8 p.m. ET, Saturday
Washington at Detroit
Line: Detroit -10
Commanders vibes:
Carefree. The Jayden Daniels hype train is picking up speed at an alarming rate, and for good reason. He continues to look like a 10-year veteran, and he’s got so much natural ability that he might be the best quarterback in the NFC, independent of system. Yes, that sounds preposterous. Still might be true. Daniels is great, he’s got an alpha receiver in Terry McLaurin, and the Commanders’ defense, though it didn’t exactly stop Baker Mayfield, slowed him down enough to allow Daniels to drive for the winning score. Washington is way ahead of schedule. If the Texans are playing with house money in the AFC, the Commanders have three times as much in the NFC. Plus, they’ve got sneaky-good linebacker play in the form of the ageless Bobby Wagner, and the significantly younger Frankie Luvu, both of them second-team All-Pros. Even if it ends here, it has been a hell of a year for Washington.
Lions vibes:
Uber-confident. With good reason, too. Aaron Glenn’s defense got Alex Anzalone back, and they’re swarming everywhere, playing plenty of man defense, and generally defying all expectations given their injury situation. The backfield gets Knuckles (David Montgomery) back to pair with Sonic (Jahmyr Gibbs), though the offensive line won’t have Kevin Zeitler. Really though, these guys are favored by a lot for a reason. They’ve been awesome. The offense is humming to such an extent that they’ve got plays for Penei Sewell. Jared Goff has plenty of options on any given play, and he’s got plenty of time to find them. He’s hardly imposing physically, but Goff’s accuracy and on-time delivery are closer to a quarterback superpower than not. Also, since this is about vibes…they’ve got Dan Campbell. They believe in him so much that they were all clearly gung-ho about getting revenge on the 49ers in a meaningless game. This is a team on a mission for themselves, and for a long-suffering city.
Lions 35 Commanders 26