Nine Straight Threes' Fearless Playoff Preview

The NFL playoffs are here. We have suffered through numerous Raiders games, Saints games, Deshaun Watson “quarterbacking” performances, and various other indignities to arrive at this destination. Drink it in, this is the good stuff.

This year feels like it has the potential to produce a truly memorable set of games, given that Kansas City hardly looks like a juggernaut despite being 15-2. I’m not sure both conferences are wide-open, per se, but you can look at the 14-team field and make a realistic Super Bowl case for about 10 of the teams.

This special edition of the power rankings will separate the wheat from the chaff. We’ll rank all 14 playoff teams, complete with tiers, and give a case for why they could win the Super Bowl, and why they won’t win the Super Bowl. One lucky team is going to have a “why they WILL win the Super Bowl” case instead. (Spoiler alert: It’s probably going to be the team ranked number one.)

Without further ado, let’s dive into your 2024 NFL Playoffs power rankings, with bonus round-by-round predictions!

So You’re Sayin There’s a Chance (Not Really)

14. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

No playoff team has looked worse than Pittsburgh over the last month. Faced with a “three games in 11 days” crucible against the Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs, the Steelers lost all three games by a combined score of 90-40. They followed that up with a desultory 19-17 loss against the Bengals. The offense, once promising with Russell Wilson, has cratered of late, the victim of turnovers and Mike Tomlin’s ultra-conservative approach. No team is a bigger wild-card weekend underdog than the Steelers, and for good reason.

Why they could win it all:

I dunno, stranger things have happened? This team just doesn’t have the look of a championship outfit, or anything close to one. They do lead the league with 33 takeaways, but they’ve also turned the ball over at least once in 10 straight games. Who knows, maybe Tomlin decides to go out on his shield and lets Russ cook, and Wilson repays him with a month of moonball touchdowns, and the entire city does an about-face on Tomlin and his team.

Why they won’t win it all:

It would literally be unprecedented. No team has ever won the Super Bowl while headed into the playoffs on a four-game losing streak. Only one team, the 2009 Saints, has won it after losing three straight to end the season. And really, only four teams – those Saints, the 2012 Ravens, the 2006 Colts, and the 1967 Packers (that last one is a stretch, to be kind) – were playing “poorly” when the postseason rolled around. Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Playoff Joe Flacco and Bart Starr aren’t walking through that door. Oh, and the Steelers have also been outscored 66-0 in the first quarter of their last five playoff games. That doesn’t help, either.

13. Houston Texans (10-7)

Houston started 5-1, albeit unimpressively so, and then just sort of meandered to the finish, going 5-6 the rest of the way. That was, of course, enough to win the AFC South by two games. The Texans weren’t ever really challenged in the division, either. They feasted on Tennessee, Jacksonville and Indianapolis, going 5-1 against them. C.J. Stroud has endured a sophomore slump, and the Texans were the team the rest of the AFC’s wild-card teams were positioning themselves to face. If a season that yields a division title can be disappointing, this is the one.

Why they could win it all:

We’ve seen Stroud when he’s on. It’s scary, and he looks about as good as the rest of the AFC’s elite quarterbacks. If Houston harnesses that, and continues to get elite pressure production from its dynamic edge-rushing tandem of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, they could pull a few shockers. The talent is there at some very crucial positions.

Why they won’t win it all:

You kind of are what your record says you are, and the Texans are a team that benefited from being in the worst division in football all year. They’re too injured on offense, too leaky on the offensive line, and have too many elite teams to jump over to realistically make a run. Will this year be a bump in the road, or did we overvalue the Texans’ long-term prospects? Time will tell.

Trendy, But I Don’t See It

12. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)

Here’s the first shocker: I’m selling on the Rams. Not a popular thing to do with Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay prominently involved, but I don’t like the way things are trending for L.A. as of late. The offense got going in a mostly meaningless finale against the Seahawks, but prior to that, the Rams had scored 13, 19 and 12 points. They won all three games, yes, but one was a slugfest against the Niners, the next a battle with the reeling Jets, and the last was against a slumping Cardinals team. If anything, L.A. got lucky with turnovers to win those three, particularly against New York and Arizona. The devastating wildfires in Los Angeles certainly make the Rams (and Chargers) easy to root for, but the logistics of the L.A.’s matchup with the Vikings getting moved to Arizona will only make things harder for the “home” team.

Why they could win it all:

Stafford and McVay are still Stafford and McVay, and when the offense gets cooking, we’ve seen it be great enough to outshine even the Buffalo Bills. The Rams also have already beaten the Vikings once this season, so they won’t be cowed by their wild-card matchup. If Stafford gets hot, they can play with anyone, but those stretches have been more infrequent and shorter in duration this season.

Why they won’t win it all:

They can’t run the ball very effectively, nor can they stop the run. The passing game is versatile, but pass defense is still another vulnerability. The defense doesn’t get home with enough regularly; the Rams’ 38 sacks rank in the bottom half of the NFL, and among playoff teams, only Detroit has fewer sacks. Needless to say, the Lions have a bit more going for them elsewhere.

Ahead of Schedule

11. Denver Broncos (10-7)

For the umpteenth time this year, I will bow my head in shame when it comes to these Broncos, who spent plenty of time near the cellar in early versions of this year’s power rankings. I thought Bo Nix was a reach, and that Sean Payton’s hubris would catch up to him. Wrong on both counts. Nix has blossomed under Payton’s tutelage, throwing 29 touchdowns and 8 interceptions after a no-touchdown, four-interception start through two games. Denver can play some serious defense, too.

Why they could win it all:

Nix has some real playmaking skills, even out of structure, is a good athlete in space, and isn’t afraid to take some chances to make plays. All of those are necessary ingredients for playoff success. Denver doesn’t run the ball all that well, but they do it well enough. Plus, a stingy defense should keep them in it against Buffalo, in a game where all the pressure will be on the Bills.

Why they won’t win it all:

You probably know this by now, but history is working against Denver – and Washington, for that matter. No rookie quarterback has ever started a Super Bowl, much less won one. Nix and the Broncos would need to do a dramatic re-write of NFL history to get it done. The Broncos are a year too early, but what’s building in the Rocky Mountains could take the league by storm as early as next year.

10. Washington Commanders (12-5)

Washington’s offense came out of the “Kingsbury mid-season swoon” just in time, and the Commanders went from 7-5 and reeling to 12-5 and rolling. A win over the Eagles, even though Jalen Hurts hardly played, was a huge confidence boost for Jayden Daniels and company. Washington is dynamic through the air and on the ground, and Daniels is the main reason for both. The defense is vulnerable, particularly against good running attacks; the Commanders’ offense can’t get going if teams are playing keep-away.

Why they could win it all:

Daniels. Simple as that. He’s been electrifying all year, plays the position with a level of poise that belies his rookie status, and never seems in a hurry on the field. He doesn’t seem like the type that will get rattled, even on the road in the playoffs, and his ability to extend plays gives Washington an element of unpredictability that would keep any defensive coordinator awake this time of year.

Why they won’t win it all:

Their first-round matchup is a bear, for one. The Buccaneers throttled them to open the season, and like that game, this one is also in Tampa. Terry McLaurin is phenomenal, but he’s the only real threat at wide receiver, and most good teams can take away at least one primary playmaker in the postseason. Unless Washington can get lots of help from non-McLaurin sources, it seems likely that Daniels’ first trip to the playoffs will be a one-and-done affair.

Rodney Dangerfield

9. Minnesota Vikings (14-3)

This one doesn’t feel great, and it might make me look very stupid, very soon. I think the Vikings are plenty capable of beating the Rams, and I think they probably will. Two of their three losses are to the best team in football this regular season. The most recent one was demoralizing, because a depleted defense had Sam Darnold seeing ghosts again, and a close game turned into a laugher. No sane person questions Brian Flores’ defensive chops, and Kevin O’Connell is one of the league’s best play-callers. But Minnesota is a mere 2.5-point favorite against the Rams. Either the Vikings are about to shut a lot of people up, or the dreaded Haterzzzz will be proven right.

Why they could win it all:

Flores’ defense, when it’s on, can stop any team for long stretches of time. Losing a battle of wits and skill to Ben Johnson and the Lions isn’t great, but it’s also not exactly shameful. Darnold has all the physical ability in the world; you don’t throw 35 touchdown passes by accident. Plus, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison form one of the best 1-2 receiving punches in these playoffs. Maybe the best, actually. If “good” Darnold shows up series in, series out, the Vikings will be very tough to beat.

Why they won’t win it all:

Darnold does turn the ball over. Minnesota’s defense forcing a league-best 33 turnovers does help alleviate that, but it’s still a glaring flaw in his game. He’s always one bad throw away from fully reverting back to Jets Sam Darnold, or something resembling it. Despite a run of very good play, his last outing has the doubters out in force. Speculative articles about Kevin O’Connell turning to the recently-acquired Daniel Jones if things go sideways? Not a great omen.

Dark Horses

8. Green Bay Packers (11-6)

We can safely call these guys the best seven seed in NFL history, because the seventh seed hasn’t been around very long, and the Packers are overqualified to wear that distinction. Five of their six losses are to the Vikings, Lions and Eagles, and the other defeat was a meaningless game against the Bears in Week 18. Jordan Love has been there, almost done that in the playoffs, so it stands to reason that he’s learned from what went wrong against the 49ers last year. Green Bay boasts a top-10 scoring offense and a top-10 scoring defense, plus a play caller in Matt LaFleur who is confident in what he’s doing.

Why they could win it all:

Love is an interception machine, but few quarterbacks left can make the throws and plays he’s capable of. Plus, all of his picks came before Thanksgiving; he’s been much more judicious with the football over the last two months. What’s more, the Packers aren’t totally reliant on him. Josh Jacobs paces a punishing running game, and while the defense is hardly a who’s who of big names, it still ranks sixth in the league in points allowed.

Why they won’t win it all:

I hate their path, for one thing. They know the Eagles well, but Philly, presuming Jalen Hurts is fully healed from his concussion, is a brutal first-round matchup. The Eagles have a deep secondary to counter the Packers’ stable of wide receivers, which won’t have its best big-play threat in Christian Watson, lost for the season to a torn ACL. If the Packers were seeded anywhere else, I could see them making a run. Their draw is just too tough, however.

7. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

The Steelers’ late-season swoon was a boon to Los Angeles, as the Chargers got themselves into the most favorable first-round matchup of any playoff team not named Baltimore. Jim Harbaugh’s team has taken on his identity in record time. Justin Herbert doesn’t play hero ball anymore, but he’s also thrown just three interceptions, and has found a top target in Ladd McConkey. If Quentin Johnston didn’t have a recurring case of butterfingers, the Chargers’ record would be even better. They also still boast the best scoring defense in the league, though it’s currently outperforming its underlying metrics a bit.

Why they could win it all:

Harbaugh and Herbert is a formidable combination, and J.K. Dobbins gives L.A. a very viable threat in the run game. The Chargers protect the ball better than all but one team in the NFL; only the Bills have fewer turnovers than Los Angeles’ nine. Couple that with a good wild-card draw and there’s reason to believe that Harbaugh might bolt (Get it? GET IT???) to a Super Bowl appearance.

Why they won’t win it all:

Rashawn Slater is banged up, and while that might not seem like a big deal, and we’ve expended much energy slagging the Texans, they do get after the quarterback from the edge better than any team in the NFL. Herbert’s mobility should help counteract that, but against a better overall team, the Chargers’ tendency to sometimes go through scoring droughts, and their inability to protect their quarterback might be their undoing. Not having a true number-two wide receiver also looms large.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)

Had I flipped these guys and the Vikings, I bet a lot of you reading would think these rankings are right on the money. I’m bullish on the Bucs, however, and I refuse to have my faith shaken. Tampa owns victories over the Eagles and Lions this year, and they’ve got as explosive and multi-faceted an offense as any team in the league this side of Detroit. Baker Mayfield is what you’d call a “high-event” quarterback; his 41 touchdown passes trailed only Joe Burrow this year, but his 16 interceptions were tied for the most in the league. He and the Bucs are coming in on a 6-1 heater, though.

Why they could win it all:

They have no fear of anyone, for starters. And in Mayfield, they have a super-talented gunslinger with a chip on his shoulder, who is totally in lockstep with offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Mayfield has plenty of targets to choose from, and the running game has blossomed behind Bucky Irving. It also helps that Tampa has Tristan Wirfs, the league’s best left tackle this season, protecting their quarterback’s blind side. Assuming this offense keeps rolling, what team would want to see them in any setting in these playoffs? They already know they can beat Philly and win in Detroit.

Why they won’t win it all:

That chip on Mayfield’s shoulder occasionally works against him, and he probably won’t be able to overcome a multi-interception game against the best competition. Tampa might have to win four shootouts to win a Super Bowl, and that’s usually a tough winning recipe. Plus, the defense just doesn’t really strike fear in anyone. If they aren’t getting takeaways, they’re very vulnerable.

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Serious Contenders

5. Buffalo Bills (13-4)

The only team to beat Kansas City when the Chiefs were actually trying this year, the Bills are yet again heading into the playoffs looking like a formidable, tough out. Josh Allen played some of the most controlled, disciplined football of his career this season, while retaining the ridiculous improvisational ability that has become his hallmark. James Cook has invigorated Buffalo’s run game; his 16 rushing touchdowns were tops in the league this season. Add in a very effective committee approach to receiving, plus a solid-if-unspectacular defense, and the Bills loom once again as a very tough out.

Why they could win it all:

Allen is as good as it gets. He’s game-plan proof, and can carry Buffalo to a win against any opponent. The playoffs are about quarterback play above all else, and he can stand toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and the rest of the league’s best. He doesn’t have a new coach like Justin Herbert, but he has experienced a similar shift in play, and now isn’t shackled by a tendency to play hero ball when he shouldn’t. In the case of one of the league’s most-gifted players, less truly might be more.

Why they won’t win it all:

I don’t trust Sean McDermott in a big game until further notice. I remain convinced that his “13 seconds” blunder cost the Bills a Super Bowl. They had the Chiefs dead to rights, and I think would have beaten Cincinnati and the Rams that year. Winning a Super Bowl will likely involve beating the Chiefs, and while the Bills might have the better roster top-to-bottom, the Chiefs have the major advantage on the sidelines.

4. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

I thought about putting these guys fifth in the rankings, after mostly singing their praises all season. The main reason is that the playoffs magnify quarterback play, and while Jalen Hurts isn’t far removed from a runner-up MVP season, he’s also the guy I would put fifth in a ranking of each top-5 team’s starting quarterbacks. Philadelphia has the best overall roster in football, I remain convinced of that, and they haven’t lost a game Hurts has started and finished since September 29^th. What I’m saying is that my gut tells me that I’m right to put them no higher than this, but I might look very stupid in the not-too-distant future.

Why they could win it all:

The roster is ridiculous, the playmakers are everywhere on both sides of the ball. Philadelphia can throw a 2,000-yard rusher at you, or gash you with two talented wide receivers with very different skill sets, or just have their quarterback bulldoze you himself on the ground. They can also pressure without blitzing, take away one or two of your best receiving threats, and generally make your life miserable when you have the ball. Vic Fangio is to defense as Andy Reid is to offense.

Why they won’t win it all:

Nick Sirianni is good for one or two mind-numbing decisions in big games – just ask Eagles fans. Plus, the road to the postseason doesn’t go through Philly. If it did, I might feel differently about them. And while all the teams in the playoffs are a quarterback injury away from being completely wrecked, only the Eagles had their signal-caller just miss two-and-a-half games because of a concussion.

Is This The Year?

3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

Winners of four in a row, and looking dominant on both sides of the ball, the Ravens have the look of the NFL’s hottest team heading into the postseason. They’ve won each of their last four games by at least 17 points, have topped 30 points each time, and haven’t allowed more than 17 in any of those games. To be fair, two of them were against the Giants and Browns, but sandwiched in between, they dismantled their typical nemesis, the Steelers, and another playoff team in the Texans. Lamar Jackson seems likely to win his second-straight MVP, and third overall, but he does have playoff demons to exorcise. This might be his best chance yet.

Why they could win it all:

They’ve got everything: Jackson, Derrick Henry, who probably could have had 2,000 yards this season with the tiniest of nudges from John Harbaugh and Todd Monken, a true star receiver in Zay Flowers, plus Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, and a host of other solid contributors. What’s more, their defense has been much better since Dean Pees joined on in October to help out first-year defensive coordinator Zach Orr. Right this second, the Ravens look like the most complete team in football.

Why they won’t win it all:

Jackson’s playoff struggles are real. Pointing that out isn’t being a hater, it’s just being accurate. And it’s not like you can make a compelling case that he’s been let down by coaches and teammates time and again; it really is on him to just be better when the lights are their brightest. I simply won’t be convinced until I see it that it’s actually going to happen.

The Favorites

2. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)

The two-time defending champs are looking to make history and become the first team in the Super Bowl era to three-peat. They have a very good chance to do it, too. Most teams with a 15-2 record and modest point differential, like Kansas City’s plus-59 mark, would be dismissed as frauds, likely to be bounced by the first team they see in the playoffs. Most teams don’t have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, however. The Chiefs finished on a 6-1 run, the only loss being a completely meaningless Week 18 affair that saw them rest every meaningful regular and put a “preseason game three” game plan on the field. In fact, the Chiefs tanked that game so hard some accused them of deliberately trying to keep the Bengals out of the playoffs. All due respect to that juicy narrative, I don’t think the Chiefs are afraid of anyone. And they shouldn’t be.

Why they could win it all:

They’ve been there, done that, and under Mahomes and Reid, have three of the t-shirts. Recent trends suggest that Mahomes and Travis Kelce are getting on the same page, and after about 10 games of trial and error, it feels like they’ve found the sweet spot in terms of how to utilize Xavier Worthy’s talents. Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception since before Thanksgiving, so it’s pretty safe to assume he’s rounding into form. The defense? They’re a ho-hum fourth in the league in points allowed, have playmakers at every level, and have been Kansas City’s sneaky strength all season. Oh, and the refs want Kansas City to win. Duh.

Why they won’t win it all:

The Chiefs have protection problems. Specifically, Jawaan Taylor and D.J. Humphries. The postseason recipe for beating Mahomes is to get pressure on him. Up the middle is best, but off the edge works, too. And while they continue to beat back almost all challengers, the Bills proved that they aren’t invincible, and several other opponents had incredibly-close near-misses. Kansas City is a two-loss team that easily could have had six or seven, but for a call here and there, the Raiders being the Raiders, a blocked field goal, Isaiah Likely’s toe, and so on.

1. Detroit Lions (15-2)

Half the defense is on IR. It seems like some valuable contributor gets hurt every week. And yet, here are the Lions, a team that was doubted by some, oddly enough, and continued to defy common sense and keep right on winning, even as the walking wounded piled up. Detroit’s plus-222-point differential is 65 points clear of the AFC’s best, and 62 clear of the Eagles. They’re the only team in the league with a double-digit average margin of victory. Jared Goff just had the best season of his career, one where you can count the subpar games on one hand, and still have a finger or two left over. They are both a feel-good story and a juggernaut, which, you’ve got to admit, is a pretty neat trick. And they’re four wins away from what would be one of the most cathartic championships any city has experienced of late.

Why they could win it all:

Ben Johnson is in his bag, week in and week out, and is a step ahead of just about every defensive coordinator trying to stop him. Even with Goff having a somewhat off night against the Vikings, the Lions still churned out 31 points and almost 400 yards of offense, rolling up 178 yards on the ground with a punishing attack. Detroit has a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, the latter of whom has emerged as one of the league’s most terrifying deep threats. Sam LaPorta has been on a big roll since a slow start to the season, and Jahmyr Gibbs has proven himself the rare first-round running back who was worth the pick. That they’ve lost their hammer, David Montgomery, and haven’t skipped a beat is a testament to the quality of their scheme and the depth of their roster. The offensive line is awesome, too.

Why they WILL win it all:

Aaron Glenn. Dan Campbell, too, but everyone knows about him and what he’s all about. Glenn has been incredible for this team, consistently overcoming major personnel losses on defense, namely Aidan Hutchinson, who was on track to be the runaway defensive player of the year, with scheme tweaks, plus an ability to get elite effort out of whatever healthy bodies he can marshal. Everyone knows the offense is great, but it has been the defense’s ability to hold their own, with only a few notable exceptions down the stretch, that has been a revelation for this team. Detroit’s defense doesn’t have to be perfect, they just have to get some stops, and let the offense do its thing. They’re plenty good enough to do that, and that’s the biggest reason why this year’s revenge tour is going to end in a Lombardi Trophy.

Round-by-round predictions:

AFC Wild-card round

(5) LA Chargers 21 (4) Houston Texans 20

(3) Baltimore Ravens 31 (6) Pittsburgh Steelers 14

(2) Buffalo Bills 30 (7) Denver Broncos 23

NFC Wild-card round

(2) Philadelphia Eagles 28 (7) Green Bay Packers 23

(3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 (6) Washington Commanders 24

(5) Minnesota Vikings 26 (4) LA Rams 16

AFC Divisional round

(1) Kansas City Chiefs 24 (5) LA Chargers 21

(3) Baltimore Ravens 34 (2) Buffalo Bills 30

NFC Divisional round

(1) Detroit Lions 30 (5) Minnesota Vikings 20

(3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 (2) Philadelphia Eagles 24

AFC Championship Game

(3) Baltimore Ravens 27 (1) Kansas City Chiefs 26

NFC Championship Game

(1) Detroit Lions 41 (3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

Super Bowl LIX

(1) Detroit Lions 38 (3) Baltimore Ravens 34